It's The Economy, Stupid All Over Again

I remember being frustrated by the first campaign for President by Bill Clinton as he hammered the first President Bush over tough economic times. Fast forward almost two decades and once again it will be the economy that could decide which candidate wins on election day. Bill Clinton was very successful talking about how bad the US economy was under the direction of President George HW Bush. In fact, he was so successful hammering away at a bad US economy that he beat the first President Bush in that election.

Right now, another President Bush's term is coming to an end and once again the economy is going to be one of the biggest issues in this falls campaign. I can't remember which Bill Clinton aide first coined the slogan, 'It's the economy, stupid' – but I think it was James Carville. Over and over during Bill Clinton's first campaign for President, I heard that slogan so many times I thought it was going to make me sick. Remember, I was not then and I still am not today a big fan of former President Clinton. That said, I certainly respect anyone that has the strength and the intelligence to run a successful campaign for President and the use of the term it's the economy stupid was a successful call to action to keep Bill Clinton's campaign workers and voters focused on his presidential bid.

While I usually have voted for Republicans because I prefer a more optimist view of life in the United States, I must admit that at the end of President George HW Bush's first term and now at the end of President George W. Bush's second term – the economy both times seems to be worse when the Bush's leave office than when they arrived. That reality is going to hurt whom ever the Republicans decide to nominate this year. In many ways, the GOP as a big tent party is in shambles in 2008 as less than well known or like candidates compete for the GOP nomination for President. If Bill and Hillary Clinton are smart, they will pull that old 'it's the economy, stupid' slogan back out and use it against Republicans this fall. As the mortgage market and stocks continue to slide, the economy will quickly become the number one issue on voters minds come November.

Read more about the Economy:

Stock Markets Crash As US Recession Fears Increase
Tuesday Could Bring Big Trouble For US Stock Prices
Grim Economy In 2008, Fed Chairman Bernanke
Is Citibank In Financial Trouble, China/Kuwait Rush Cash?
Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo's $100 Million Severance

January 21, 2008 Archives

Stock Markets Crash As US Recession Fears Increase

Tomorrow, Tuesday, should be an interesting day on Wall Street as US markets open to news of a worldwide stock sell off today. While most financial experts are trying to put the best face forward on a potential stock market sell off tomorrow, in reality the pain felt around the world today will put tremendous pressure on the DOW and NASDAQ at tomorrows opening bell. Decades ago, the United States was still able to mainly separate itself from events that happened overseas. However, in recent decades globalization has brought all world markets together to a point where when one country falls, the rest of the world falls right along with it.

As I watched stocks fall from Asia to Europe today, my mind keep thinking about the hundreds of thousands of people that will be forced to sell stock in the US tomorrow just to met margin calls and other financial obligations because of this massive worldwide stock crash. I have seen the US stock market regain strength in late date trading before after a huge morning loss. However, I do not think that is in the cards for tomorrow morning as over leveraged people from around the world will be forced to sell securities by their brokerage firms. Add to the fact that this latest worldwide stock sell off was generated because of concerns about the US economy and there will be little good news to rally the stock market in afternoon trading tomorrow.

The term 'Black Monday' has been used for a long time to describe an unexpected stock market sell off on a Monday morning. The only good news I see coming out of Wall Street trading tomorrow is the fact that almost everyone is predicting that the market will close down on Tuesday, so if Wall Street continues in it's dysfunctional style – the DOW will be up at the end of the day. While there are many people that try to play the opposite game on Wall Street, it will take nerves of steal to be buying stocks at the opening bell tomorrow. Will the DOW rebound? Of course it will, it is all just a matter of time. Just like the US economy cannot ride high all the time, neither can the US stock market. There will be pain on Wall Street tomorrow and hopefully at the end of the day the word 'record' is not being used by people that report the news.

Read more about the Economy:

Tuesday Could Bring Big Trouble For US Stock Prices
Grim Economy In 2008, Fed Chairman Bernanke
Is Citibank In Financial Trouble, China/Kuwait Rush Cash?
Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo's $100 Million Severance
Michael Dell Rebuilding His Computer Company

Kiefer Sutherland Released After Serving 48 Day Sentence

Early this morning, 24 star, Kiefer Sutherland was released from a Glendale California jail after serving 48 days for DUI and for violating his probation from a previous DUI conviction. Sutherland is best known for his larger than life portrayal of Jack Bauer in the hit Fox Television series, '24'. A humble Kiefer Sutherland has been asking forgiveness from his family friends and coworkers because of his failed attempts to stop drinking alcohol. Most likely, Sutherland is an alcoholic and a treatment facility will be his next stop not only to control the addictive nature of this disease, but also help with the underlying problems that often times lead to alcohol abuse in the first place.

Jail officials said that Kiefer Sutherland was a model inmate that gave jail officials no trouble during his month and a half stay there. Sutherland was reportedly assigned to the laundry room at the jail where he did his daily work without ever complaining. I certainly have a great deal of sympathy for Kiefer Sutherland because I personally have known people that have fought the daily cravings of alcohol sometimes successfully and sometimes not. The road to recovery for an alcoholic is a long road that never ends for true alcoholics. The process of AA and other treatment programs involve a one day at a time approach filled with the support of other people who are also suffering with alcoholism.

While I am no great fan of the Fox Television Show, '24', I have watched it from time to time and Sutherland's character, Jack Bauer, does carry that show for most regular viewers. Right now, Kiefer Sutherland needs all the good friends he can find. In Hollywood sometimes it is difficult to find real friendships because the narcissism in Hollywood culture runs deep. Hopefully, Kiefer has a good friend or two that do not drink and who also can help keep him clean and sober. It may be awhile before Sutherland can return to work on '24' because of the writers strike, so hopefully he will be able to find something else, beside work, to occupy his time as he works toward recovery.

Read more about Hollywood Issues:

Jay Leno Defeats David Letterman In Late Night Ratings
Mountain Man David Letterman Returns To Late Show
No Ache Breaky In Miley Cyrus' Hannah Montana Heart
David Letterman Returns With Writers/Advantage
Rebecca De Mornay Latest DUI Star Arrest

Research Scientist Look Crazy With Dysfunctional Studies

Once again today another group of scientist released a study where they determined that caffeine might increase the risk of miscarriage in pregnant women. Thirty years ago, when I was still a young man – people looked up to scientist because they usually had all their facts and research together before they went public with their finding. However, in recent times so many scientist are doing research on the same subject that conflicting study results are being released almost on a daily basis. It wasn't that long ago that people were encouraged to drink coffee for a number of good health benefits and now here comes another study that claims caffeine is bad for some people.

It's not just coffee, but everything from red wine and olive oil to plan ordinary aspirin have seen their fair share of conflicting scientific evidence. In fact, I believe this conflicting science is turning scientist into modern day weathermen that can't even figure out if it is going to be hot or cold tomorrow. What is at the root of this problem with scientific research is that most of it is being funded by marketing companies that work for big business. Rather than hoping to find out if their product is healthy for people or not, many of these large companies want to see their product proven effective in large research studies whether the facts bear out that finding or not. Research scientist are not stupid and they know where their funding is coming from and what will happen to it if they come up with the wrong conclusion.

Frankly, I have stop listening to most of these endless research studies that try to prove whether or not something is good and healthy for me. Instead, I have gone back to plain old common sense because no matter what these so called experts say today – they are likely to change their minds in the near future. When corporate money drives research then there is no way an honest answer can be found. While one company wants to see one set of results, another company needs to research to say something else. Just like in recent weeks we have witness the unraveling of poll predictions in this years presidential elections because of pollster bias, the same has been happening for years with research scientist who know that their funding will soon dry up if they don't find a way to make their findings palatable to the companies that fund their research.

Read more about Health Research:

Attacking Overweight People Different Than Cigarette Smokers
Antibiotic Resistant Staph 'Superbug' Threatens School Kids
Topps/Cargill/Sams Club - E. coli Meat Scare
Teen Suicide Rate Soars - Medicine Warnings To Blame?
New H5N1 Bird Flu Fears - Germany

Tuesday Could Bring Big Trouble For US Stock Prices

One big website today had the headline that it was good that the US Stock Market was closed today because world markets traded lower almost across the board. Of course, the US Stock Market was closed on Monday in celebration of the life of Dr. Martin Luther King. However, tomorrow US markets will open once again and if today's big worldwide decline in equity prices continues to Wall Street tomorrow then it could be a 'Black Tuesday' as US stocks fall further. The big factor driving stocks lower across the world is the direct result of a loss of investor confidence in the US economy.

Several months ago it became clear that huge losses in the sub-prime mortgage market were starting to take a toll of some of the biggest banks and investment brokerage firms in the United States. That mortgage bad news was followed by increasing rates of credit card delinquency's and a slow Christmas shopping season put investor confidence at the lowest levels in decades. Now all of this bad news is making it's way to Wall Street in a big way and the painful losses seen the past few weeks could become much worse when US stocks start trading again on Tuesday. The business talking heads have been all over television the past few weeks talking about how good the current stock market correction is for the market in general. However, I believe we are witnessing something much worse than a 10% correction in stock prices because the reason stocks are declining in price is not due to them being overpriced, but instead prices are falling because the US economy is weak.

Members of Congress and President Bush have agreed on little the past year since Democrats took over control of the House of Representatives and Senate. However, both the Congress and President are looking for ways to jump start the US economy so it does not slip into recession in 2008. The biggest ideas being floated involve giving a $500-$800 one time tax rebate to people so they can go out and spend that money in retail stores. While this idea is a feel good approach that will have short term benefits – in the long run it is out-of-control spending by government and regular people that is leading to US economic problems. Spend is good for the economy, but if too much of that spending is being generated by credit cards or some other buy now and pay later type of program then it will be bad for the long term growth of the US economy. I look for stocks to trade much lower on Tuesday when US markets open once again.

Read more about the Economy:

Grim Economy In 2008, Fed Chairman Bernanke
Is Citibank In Financial Trouble, China/Kuwait Rush Cash?
Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo's $100 Million Severance
Michael Dell Rebuilding His Computer Company
Wall Street Could Once Again Face - 'Black Monday'

Is Barack Obama Running Against Bill Clinton?

This morning, Barack Obama has turned up the heat on former President Bill Clinton and accused him of lying in order to help Hillary Clinton's campaign for President. In one of the most troubling statements I have heard during this presidential campaign season, Barack Obama said something to the effect that people expect a former President to be more truthful when making statements. When I read that comment I had to laugh because hardly anyone in the world thinks of honesty when they think of former President Bill Clinton. In recent memory, only President Nixon lied more than Bill Clinton did while serving as President of the United States.

Today's statements by Barack Obama will once again remind many voters of his lack of experience in public life. While Obama is trying to be politically correct when going after former President Clinton, Bill Clinton's approach is more direct and, most of the time, right on the money when he goes after Obama. Barack Obama is learning for the first time what Republicans have known for years and that is the team of Bill and Hillary Clinton are the best campaigners in the business. If Barack Obama really wants to win the democratic nomination for President, he must stop talking in politically correct terms and fight back like a man against Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Using a strategy of letting former President Bill Clinton do the dirty work for Hillary while she remains above the fray did not seem like a good idea to me several weeks ago. However, just like in campaigns of the past – the Clinton's are always two or three moves ahead of the competition in political campaigns and most likely they knew how Barack Obama would react to their words before he ever said them. Unfortunately, Barack Obama is not in the same league as the Clinton's when it comes to running a scorched earth political campaign. Barack Obama seems like a nice and likable man which in the end will be used against him by the Clinton's.

The only way to beat Bill and Hillary Clinton in a presidential campaign is to get as dirty as they are and stick with it until you win. I do not think that Barack Obama is a negative campaigner at heart which could cause him to eventually fall victim to the 'take no prisoners' approach of Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Read more about Barack Obama:

Will Barack Obama Win New York State Against Senator Clinton?
Hillary Clinton Barack Obama's Vice President?
Hillary Might Go After Barack Obama's Muslim Religion
John McCain Running Against Barack Obama In New Hampshire
Barack Obama The Candidate To Beat In 2008?