Sunday, January 27, 2008

Fight For Delegates, Democrats/GOP Wide Open Race

The campaign for the Democrat and Republican nominations to run for President in 2008 is turning into a real competition. On the democratic side, all three top candidates have several delegates to their name with Barack Obama currently standing as number one. On the Republican side, the same story is true with all three top contenders with almost the same number of delegates with Mitt Romney currently with the most. On Super Tuesday it will be interesting to watch and see if either Obama or Romney are able to break out from the pack and plant their campaign flags strongly in a front runner position. For the Republicans, the upcoming Florida Primary could mess up Mitt Romney's plans to go into Super Tuesday as the GOP candidate with the most delegates as current polls show John McCain leading in the Florida Primary that will be held this week.

In the race for the democratic and GOP nominations for President, all that really matters at the end of the day are how many delegates that are won. When GOP and Democrat leaders set up the path a candidate must travel in order to win their party's nomination for President, both political party's desired a quick and easy path for the eventual winner to travel. However, in 2008 that clear and easy path to a party's nomination has been cluttered with more than one candidate that wins early and starts building a base of support for the general election. Today, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have a 50/50 chance of winning the democratic nomination for President. On the GOP side I give a greater edge to John McCain because I believe, in the end, he will edge out Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination.

In the same way the general election is decided by electoral college votes, the path to both the GOP and Democrat nominations for President will be through earning enough delegates to win the party's nomination. If by some chance no one candidate has earned enough delegates to win their party's nomination on the first ballot, then all delegates are freed from their candidate obligation and they are then free to vote for whomever they desire on the second and subsequent ballots. This process is referred to in the history books as a brokered convention. It has been decades since the last brokered convention and neither party or the delegates that represent those party's wants to see a fight among delegates at their nationally televised convention. However, like it or not – this year a brokered convention is a possibility for both major political party's and for political buffs like me, it would be more interesting to watch than the average boring conventions I have witnessed over the past 20 years.

Read more about 2008 Elections:

Ron Paul Is Authentic In Field Of Pretenders
Clinton/Obama Face Off Saturday In Nevada
GOP Facing 2008 Brokered Party Convention
Election 2008 Making Pollsters Look Foolish
Obama/Clinton, Let's Play Nice For Now