Friday, December 28, 2007

New Poll Shows Clinton/Obama/Edwards Tied In Iowa

There have been so many conflicting polls being released in the run up to next months Iowa Primary that for the most part I have started to just ignore them. The most interesting poll released to date came out today and showed Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all tied in Iowa. I wonder how many of these polls are conducted by either the campaigns themselves or pollsters that are pulling for one candidate and they hope to influence voters by showing their favorite candidate either in the lead or in contention to win? Iowa has always been a hard sell for Hillary Clinton to make, so most of her attention has been focused on New Hampshire instead. Until the past few weeks, John Edwards was firmly in the lead in Iowa because he has spend a bunch of money advertising there and also he has been in Iowa so much over the past year he might have shook every citizens hand that lives there.

To me, Barack Obama is the big surprise in Iowa and if he is able to win there early next month, then Hillary Clinton will be forced to pull out all the stops in New Hampshire to try and stop the momentum he will earn with a victory. These early polls really tell us nothing about what will really happen on election day, but they are fun to watch because every time a new poll comes out – all the candidates react either thrilled with the results or if they did badly they try to discount that polls as not reflecting the real attitude of the voters. I'm certain that Hillary Clinton was hoping to be on the road to a coronation by now, but with heavy advertising and one to one campaigning by Barack Obama and John Edwards her coronation has turned into a real battle for the democratic nomination for President.

When push comes to shove I always end up betting with the likely winner and in Iowa I believe the candidate that will win the caucus there will be Hillary Clinton. It is common for poll results to fluctuate wildly in the last week of a campaign and that's exactly what is happening right now. However, once people start showing up at their local caucus location – the familiarity of Hillary Clinton and the love of her husband in the democratic party will carry the day for her. I believe John Edwards will come in third in Iowa which if correct will destroy his presidential aspirations and he will pull out of this race, quickly. Barack Obama, I believe, will come in a strong second in Iowa and that strong showing will propel his campaign forward as the major news media will all but ignore Hillary's win and focus most of their attention on the strong second placed showing by Obama. Now I just have to wait a couple of more weeks to find out if I'm right!

Read more about 2008 Elections:

Iowa Voters Prepare To Caucus Next Month
Ron Paul Should Ditch The GOP – Run As Independent
Democrats Get Friendly Moderator At Debate
Alan Keyes Demagogues GOP Presidential Debate
Democrats Claim Mike Huckabee Has 'Glass Jaw'

Hutch Report Archive